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Perspectives and risks for the economic growth.
The excessive focus on balance of payments and particularly on current account deficit may render difficult the process of analysis of the current economic conditions and the threats to the growth. On the one hand, we hold that the official statistics on balance of payments probably overestimates the current account deficit. T... -
New credit curbing measures scheduled for adoption.
New measure targeting mortgage lending growth through amendments in Ordinance #8 on the Capital Adequacy of Banks has been declared by BNB. According to new requirements banks could lend without penalty up to 50% of the evaluation of real estate used as collateral. If the credit amount exceeds this share, banks have to provide a... -
Bulgarian lev is not overvalued.
The attempts to estimate the “real price” of the lev is apparently becoming a live question. The debate which some analysts are starting now may result overdue when the actual the euro currency substitution happens in Bulgaria.This kind of debates caused the start of the discussion on that whether or not the Bulgarian lev was o... -
The Bulgarian economy in 2006
The current analysis covers our forecasts for the dynamics of the main economic indicators in 2006. ... -
GDP Growth Slows Down to 5.7% y-o-y.
GDP growth decelerated for the first time in two years. For the year till September, real economic growth was 5.7% which almost coincides with Industry Watch 2005 forecast (5.8%). Fixed capital investments grew surprisingly quick - by over 25% in Q3 2005 on the basis of the same quarter 2004 - while we expect investments growth ... -
More specifics and detailed policies to be found in the Government Program 2005-2009, compared to previous cabinet’s agenda.
We can outline three areas of policy that deserve special attention: a promise of balanced budget and contained public expenditure, deregulation of network industries and concessions over infrastructure and (partial) reforms in financing of education and healthcare. The government sets a target of fiscal burden of 40% of GDP. Ta... -
Latchezar Bogdanov of Industry Watch speaks on macroeconomic risks in Bulgaria at Experian-Scorex Strategy Management seminar on 22 November 2005.
Main topics in the presentation include the impact of monetary expansion on Bulgarian financial system, threats to sustainable investment trend and accumulation of savings as well as analysis of asset prices as a bubble risk. Questions can be directed to: Bogdanov@iwatchbulgaria.com.... -
A year ago Industry Watch forecasted 4.3% inflation for 2005.
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