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Personal assets in Bulgaria, Q1 2010
Under rising uncertainty about employment and income in the context of the still high real interest rate on deposits the saving rate in Bulgaria reached 20% of GDP by the end of 2009, compared with 16% in 2008. Bulgarians have 59 thousand deposits in banks, in excess of 50 000 leva, as their total sum amounted to 6.9 billion (or...
Personal Assets in Bulgaria in Q3 2009
The growth potential of personal wealth is constrained by the stagnation on the labor market, visible through declining incomes and increasing unemployment, which will probably continue to pick up in 2010 as well. Nevertheless, there are existing factors, which stimulate the growth of wealth. In times of crisis households save, ...
Two years of global crisis: the Bulgarian economy in 2009
• The onset of the financial crisis in 2007 coincided with a period of rapid economic growth in Bulgaria, driven primarily by investment activity. It is difficult to differentiate how much exactly the dynamics of the Bulgarian economy has been a a result of fundamental factors, related to increasing productivity and the improvem...
The next crisis in Bulgaria
The definition of “crisis” in most cases would include at least a sudden event. If we expected the crisis, we would have been prepared, we would try to avoid it and thus turn into a usual part of business and life, but then we would not need to call it a crisis, wouldn’t we. One important and positive effects from crises is that...
Economic growth during global recession
The official statistics in Bulgaria reported the preliminary data on GDP in Q3 2008. The real growth of the economy remained relatively high, although slightly decelerating compared to the previous (second) quarter. Considerable contribution to the relatively high growth is brought in by agriculture, which is typically character...
Is the foreign debt a problem for the Bulgarian economy right now
Using the macroeconomic approach, the problem could be both in the private and the public debt. The broad consensus is that Bulgaria does not have problems with the government debt. What is more as of October the total volume of the debt is covered by the fiscal reserve, i.e. the Bulgarian government does not have debt.Many anal...
Housing in Bulgaria - asset or liability
The main participants in the housing market in the recent months have reported decline in the number of the closed deals and drop in asking prices. The official statistics still shows the state of the housing market with a little lag. The data on Q4 2008 will probably register more serious decline of the housing growth. The slow...
It’s not time for Keynes now
In our opinion the more important question is not whether the forecast for growing unemployment will come true, but rather what the political risks, arising from a broad consensus around these forecasts. The threat of more unemployment is a significant problem for the politicians (as if it concerns solely them). With the officia...