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New balance of payments data change considerably the macroeconomic outlook in Bulgaria.
submited on 15.03.2006 in category Political stability | Fiscal affairs | Monetary policy | Regulated markets | Privatisation | Macroeconomic developments
submited on 15.03.2006 in category Political stability | Fiscal affairs | Monetary policy | Regulated markets | Privatisation | Macroeconomic developments
BNB announced several important revisions of the balance of payments data because of new data and changes in methodology. These include mostly the following:
-new data about the foreign investments for 2004 and 2005,
-new method of transport revenue and expenditure registration in the export-import process – differentiating the type of transport and the carrier’s nationality,
-introducing of methodology for registration of flows from unofficially employed Bulgarians in the EU.
The analysis we made led to several important conclusions in the process of future formation of macro policy:
- The capital flows to Bulgaria (measured through the financial account) are in fact 10% and 6% (for 2004 and 2005) higher than the registered until this moment or EUR 444 million more for the period.
- The use of the new and more correct methodology for measurement of the transport costs proves to reduce the current account deficit by 0.6% of GDP.
-According to the methodology for measurement of the income from informal employment of Bulgarians in abroad BNB registers additional EUR 800 million. After the increased spending of these Bulgarians due to their prolonged stay is taken into consideration, the overall effect is the decrease of the current account deficit of about 3% of GDP.
- The overall effect is higher level of domestic savings – 3.6 % of GDP more than the registered until now. The decrease of this indicator was used as a macroeconomic measurement of the worsening conditions of the Bulgarian economy.
-new data about the foreign investments for 2004 and 2005,
-new method of transport revenue and expenditure registration in the export-import process – differentiating the type of transport and the carrier’s nationality,
-introducing of methodology for registration of flows from unofficially employed Bulgarians in the EU.
The analysis we made led to several important conclusions in the process of future formation of macro policy:
- The capital flows to Bulgaria (measured through the financial account) are in fact 10% and 6% (for 2004 and 2005) higher than the registered until this moment or EUR 444 million more for the period.
- The use of the new and more correct methodology for measurement of the transport costs proves to reduce the current account deficit by 0.6% of GDP.
-According to the methodology for measurement of the income from informal employment of Bulgarians in abroad BNB registers additional EUR 800 million. After the increased spending of these Bulgarians due to their prolonged stay is taken into consideration, the overall effect is the decrease of the current account deficit of about 3% of GDP.
- The overall effect is higher level of domestic savings – 3.6 % of GDP more than the registered until now. The decrease of this indicator was used as a macroeconomic measurement of the worsening conditions of the Bulgarian economy.
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