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Industry Watch poll of forecasters envisages 6% economic growth in 2007.
submited on 17.10.2006 in category Political stability | Fiscal affairs | Monetary policy | Macroeconomic developments
submited on 17.10.2006 in category Political stability | Fiscal affairs | Monetary policy | Macroeconomic developments
This is the 6th time that we launch a macroeconomic forecasting poll among leading Bulgarian economists. That is the first independent source of economic forecast which can serve as benchmark for the outlook of the government and of the international institutions.
This fall we update our spring forecast, based on poll among leading Bulgarian economists, for 2006 and 2007. Economist have become more optimistic for both years, average GDP growth forecast being for 5.9% and 6% respectively. Even the most skeptic outlook is for growth of 5.3% in both years.
The most significant change in this update we have in the capital formation growth, which is traditionally pretty hard to forecast due to substantial fluctuation through the years. However confidence increases that investments will grow fairly quickly in 2007 – in the range of 14-19 percent.
Together with faster growth of investments we expect faster growth of imports – there is an increase of the forecasted growth for both 2006 and 2007 up to 14% in real terms. As exports would grow slower than imports that would lead to bigger trade deficit. However that must be treated as reflection of the bigger inflow of foreign capital.
For the first time we have forecasted the budget surplus figure, which is expected to be on average 3.5% of GDP in 2006. Next year, revenues in the consolidated budget would exceed expenditures by some 1.7% of GDP.
CPI inflation in 2007 is expected to be much slower than in 2006 – in the range of 3.7-5.3 percent yearly average. Quick rise of excise taxes this year lead to a higher inflation, which is expected to be close to 7% on average 2006.
This fall we update our spring forecast, based on poll among leading Bulgarian economists, for 2006 and 2007. Economist have become more optimistic for both years, average GDP growth forecast being for 5.9% and 6% respectively. Even the most skeptic outlook is for growth of 5.3% in both years.
The most significant change in this update we have in the capital formation growth, which is traditionally pretty hard to forecast due to substantial fluctuation through the years. However confidence increases that investments will grow fairly quickly in 2007 – in the range of 14-19 percent.
Together with faster growth of investments we expect faster growth of imports – there is an increase of the forecasted growth for both 2006 and 2007 up to 14% in real terms. As exports would grow slower than imports that would lead to bigger trade deficit. However that must be treated as reflection of the bigger inflow of foreign capital.
For the first time we have forecasted the budget surplus figure, which is expected to be on average 3.5% of GDP in 2006. Next year, revenues in the consolidated budget would exceed expenditures by some 1.7% of GDP.
CPI inflation in 2007 is expected to be much slower than in 2006 – in the range of 3.7-5.3 percent yearly average. Quick rise of excise taxes this year lead to a higher inflation, which is expected to be close to 7% on average 2006.
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