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GDP Growth in 2006 is expected to be 5.1% according to Industry Watch poll of forecasts.
submited on 31.10.2005 in category Macroeconomic developments
submited on 31.10.2005 in category Macroeconomic developments
As an independent source of economic research and policy analysis Industry Watch presents its regular forecasts on Bulgaria’s economy. The forecasts are based on a poll among a selection of leading Bulgarian economists. They take place twice a year – in spring and in fall.
The latest release present forecasts for 2005 and 2006, which are revisions of the forecasts given in the spring of 2005. The new numbers show a slight increase of the macroeconomists’ optimism, who on average envisage a GDP growth of 5.1% in 2006 (higher than the previous forecast of 4.8%). The growth is still expected to slow down next year.
The economists expect that the double-digit growth of investments will be sustained (11.5% in 2006 on average), as all forecasts are in the range of 10%-13%.
The forecasts for a slowdown of economic growth are based on an expected contraction of the exports of the heavy industries, which would not be entirely compensated by the leading export sector – textiles, shoes and apparel. Still even in the pessimistic scenario for 2006 the economy would grow by 4.5% in real terms.
According to the macro-forecasts the relatively stable GDP growth would be sustained due to stable dynamics of capital investments and of exports. Exports of goods and services is expected to keep growing by about 11% per annum in real terms. Imports will grow still faster than exports (11.5%).
Inflation forecast (more precisely CPI) for 2006 is between 5% and 6.6%, which means that some acceleration of inflation is expected (as CPI grows currently at 4.6% y-o-y). These expectations are related mainly to regulated prices as well as to upcoming increases of excise taxes.
The latest release present forecasts for 2005 and 2006, which are revisions of the forecasts given in the spring of 2005. The new numbers show a slight increase of the macroeconomists’ optimism, who on average envisage a GDP growth of 5.1% in 2006 (higher than the previous forecast of 4.8%). The growth is still expected to slow down next year.
The economists expect that the double-digit growth of investments will be sustained (11.5% in 2006 on average), as all forecasts are in the range of 10%-13%.
The forecasts for a slowdown of economic growth are based on an expected contraction of the exports of the heavy industries, which would not be entirely compensated by the leading export sector – textiles, shoes and apparel. Still even in the pessimistic scenario for 2006 the economy would grow by 4.5% in real terms.
According to the macro-forecasts the relatively stable GDP growth would be sustained due to stable dynamics of capital investments and of exports. Exports of goods and services is expected to keep growing by about 11% per annum in real terms. Imports will grow still faster than exports (11.5%).
Inflation forecast (more precisely CPI) for 2006 is between 5% and 6.6%, which means that some acceleration of inflation is expected (as CPI grows currently at 4.6% y-o-y). These expectations are related mainly to regulated prices as well as to upcoming increases of excise taxes.
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