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IwatchBulgaria.com - News - Real productivity growth stays at 2% y-o-y.
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Real productivity growth stays at 2% y-o-y.
submited on 21.07.2005 in category Regulated markets | Macroeconomic developments
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The average productivity dynamics slowed down substantially during the last two years. From about 5% the real productivity growth slowed down to 2% in late-2004 and early-2005. This is an estimation for the non-farm business sector of the economy, i.e. excluding public sector and farming. Measured in EUR, productivity grows at a fairly constant pace of some 6.5%. This however does not take into account the Euro inflation, which keep nominal productivity growth seemingly high.

We deflate productivity dynamics by the NSI deflator for the industrial production (very close to PPI). Thus in real terms, the productivity growth has been about 2% fro the last three quarters.

The slowdown in productivity dynamics is a result of the fast job creation taking place in the private sector, therefore we do not consider it a macroeconomic trouble. The unemployed normally find jobs with lower than the average productivity, thus keep the growth of average productivity comparatively low.

The faster job creation is good indicator of the increased investment activity in the country. The share of small and medium sized investors in getting bigger in the employment creation, unlike 6-7 years ago. The employment growth reached 6.9% in the first quarter of 2005, when the jobs in the private sector increased by some 120,000 compared to a year earlier.
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