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Economic growth in 2005 to be 5.1% according to Industry Watch poll of forecasters.
submited on 07.05.2005 in category Political stability | Monetary policy | Macroeconomic developments
submited on 07.05.2005 in category Political stability | Monetary policy | Macroeconomic developments
As an independent source of economic research and analysis Industry Watch presents regulars forecasts on Bulgaria’s economy, based on a poll of selected macroeconomists. The poll takes place twice a year (spring and fall). In the current spring poll we present the updated forecast for 2005 and a forecast for 2006.
The forecasts for 2005 show an increased optimism of the macroeconomists, who foresee a growth of 5.1% on average (which is higher than the forecast in the fall of 4.6% for 2005). For this year the investments growth is expected to remain over 10%.
For 2006 the forecasts envisage a slight slowdown of the economic growth down to 4.8%, which is still higher than the average growth for the past four years. As might me expected, the difference between maximum and minimum forecasts increases for the next year. However even in the pessimistic scenario the economy would grow by 4% in 2006.
According to the macro-forecasts economic growth will keep its current pace due to sustained growth of investments and exports. The growth of capital formation will stay about 10%, while the exports will rise by over 11% in real terms. The forecasts for 2006 are charged by an extra uncertainty due to a possible shift in economic policy after the elections in mid-2005.
The inflation (CPI y-o-y) forecast for 2005 is between 3.4% and 4.7%, which means an expected deceleration of the inflation growth (till March the CPI was 5.5% y-o-y). Those expectations are based on a further tightening of the US monetary policy and an expected shift in a the same direction of the monetary policy in the Eurozone.
The forecasts for 2005 show an increased optimism of the macroeconomists, who foresee a growth of 5.1% on average (which is higher than the forecast in the fall of 4.6% for 2005). For this year the investments growth is expected to remain over 10%.
For 2006 the forecasts envisage a slight slowdown of the economic growth down to 4.8%, which is still higher than the average growth for the past four years. As might me expected, the difference between maximum and minimum forecasts increases for the next year. However even in the pessimistic scenario the economy would grow by 4% in 2006.
According to the macro-forecasts economic growth will keep its current pace due to sustained growth of investments and exports. The growth of capital formation will stay about 10%, while the exports will rise by over 11% in real terms. The forecasts for 2006 are charged by an extra uncertainty due to a possible shift in economic policy after the elections in mid-2005.
The inflation (CPI y-o-y) forecast for 2005 is between 3.4% and 4.7%, which means an expected deceleration of the inflation growth (till March the CPI was 5.5% y-o-y). Those expectations are based on a further tightening of the US monetary policy and an expected shift in a the same direction of the monetary policy in the Eurozone.
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