You are in Home > News > Macroeconomic developments > Future Areas of Economic Growth in Bulgaria: Focus on Job Creation
- Political stability
- Fiscal affairs
- Monetary policy
- Regulated markets
- Privatisation
- Macroeconomic developments
Future Areas of Economic Growth in Bulgaria: Focus on Job Creation
submited on 20.09.2012 in category Regulated markets | Fiscal affairs | Privatisation | Political stability | Monetary policy | Macroeconomic developments
submited on 20.09.2012 in category Regulated markets | Fiscal affairs | Privatisation | Political stability | Monetary policy | Macroeconomic developments
Main findings of the Industry Watch report „Future Areas of Economic Growth in Bulgaria: Focus on Job Creation“ (commissioned by America for Bulgaria Foundation):
The development of two general types of industries will shape most of the expected job creation in Bulgarian in the longer run. First, those are industries that will expand due to offshoring of production bases by global manufacturers.
Among them the critical sectors are:
• Tier 2 Industrial Part, including Auto-parts,
• “Light” industries, such as Apparel, Food and Beverages, Furniture, Drugs and Cosmetics,
• Assembly lines of Original Equipment Manufacturing and Tier 1 Components.
Secondly, industries in which we might expect dynamic change of business models and/or restructuring of business processes, will attract entry- to mid-level skillset employment, most of which have been left idle by contracting sectors such as construction, mining, metal production and other “heavy” industries. Among those critical sectors are Wholesale and Logistics, Retail and Online Trade.
The forecast of the future dynamics of employment is made according to three scenarios for development of the Bulgarian economy.
In the baseline scenario we assume moderate dynamics of offshoring investments, however strong organic growth in some industries, stemming from changes in business models and/or restructuring of processes. In such scenario over 50% of the new jobs will be in the two general types of industries described here adding some 150,000 new jobs in the economy by 2020.
In the faster-growth scenario, we assume dynamic attraction of FDI in off-shored production facilities, providing quick growth of job positions in manufacturing and supporting sectors. In such scenario we expect quicker pace for both general types of industries, manufacturing being the leading sector with over 110,000 new jobs for the projected period.
We have conducted structured interviews with 8 HR and recruitment professionals, including with corporate HR and COO, recruit company officers, and representatives of a website for labor demand and supply. They have confirmed the general typology of industry drivers of job growth. Baseline scenario is now viewed as most likely, however one has to check for signs that confirm other development paths. HR interviews showed no consensus for the expected job creation in big sectors such as Farming and Tourism.
It seems reasonable to focus efforts at the “entry points” to the labor market - job positions and industries that accommodate idle labor and then turn them to mobile and convertible resources for a wide range of task and processes. The number of such jobs will grow even in a slow-growth scenario, as they will be found extensively in industries that will grow mainly driven by domestic demand (e.g. Delivery, Maintenance, Healthcare).
Labor demand will be more clearly shaped by “soft skillset” rather than by technical vocation. Moreover, technical and vocational training will be extensively provided by manufacturers. The employers themselves however might need certain guidance and support how to attract the marginalized population to the labor market.
You may request the full report at stoeff@iwatchbulgaria.com.
What is your opinion about this article?
3 agreed
0 disagreed