- Political stability
- Fiscal affairs
- Monetary policy
- Regulated markets
- Privatisation
- Macroeconomic developments
submited on 10.05.2013 in category Regulated markets | Fiscal affairs | Privatisation | Political stability | Monetary policy | Macroeconomic developments
Four weeks ago we started our initiative to help individuals and businesses navigate the economic ideas of the parties by compiling of a fact of economic life every day. The challenge for economic policy is to achieve faster growth and this can only happen if it continues to be open by taking maximum advantage of the knowledge, technology and capital in the global and European economy. We believe that Bulgaria is a relatively poor country in a common market with richer countries, with an open economy, but poor in domestic savings. The most serious obstacles to growth are structural problems in the labor market, inadequate training of the workforce, false incentives in education, inefficient public sector, insufficient foreign investment, poor working judicial system in the field of trade relations.
We believe that everyone has an individual responsibility for their choices. What we did in Industry Watch, is to give a quick, concise and understandable tool for assessing feasibility of the pre-election promises. In our view it is important that the parties recognize the main characteristics of the Bulgarian economy, on the one hand, and even more so – whether they are rightly focusing on the largest and most important problems that require political action.
We suggested 30 facts that we believe illustrate these challenges. The prosperity and improvement of the personal well-being of Bulgarian citizens depends on whether future decision-makers are reality conscious and insist on implementing working economic reforms in these areas:
1. In Bulgaria barely 59% of the people 15-64 years old are employed, while in EU-64%, in the Netherlands 75%.
2. FDI in Bulgaria for the past 10 years totaled EUR 37.8 billion or 12.5% of GDP
3. During fastest economic growth in Bulgaria fixed-capital investments were 34% of GDP (now 21%)
4. Tax wedge on labor costs in Bulgaria is 34%
5. 13% of Bulgaria's foreign trade is with Turkey (twice as much as w France)
6. Only 11% of household financial wealth in Bulgaria consists of savings for pension (in Netherlands 50%)
7. Investment goods imports in Bulgaria for the past 12m are 17% below the 2008 levels.
8. Despite credit boom till 2008 housing debt in Bulgaria is just 11% of GDP (28% in Austria)
9. Social transfers in Bulgaria annually equal 14% of household financial wealth (7% in Sweden)
10. In Bulgaria 51% of the people 55-64 years old have jobs (in Switzerland 80%, in Germany 68%, in Estonia 60%)
11. "Winter" tourism grew 10% for the season, the whole tourism sector employs 80 thousand people
12. 82% of university graduates have jobs, only 27% of people with basic and lower education.
13. Total floorage of residential construction permits issued in the past 12 months was 81% less than 2007
14. Denmark, Netherlands, Australia (with best pensions by Mercer) private pension assets 92% of GDP
15. In Bulgaria during 2000-2008 the budget surplus is 0.1% of GDP, economic growth is on average 5.8% in real terms, while public debt decreased by BGN 9.5 billion
16. Since 2000 despite the crisis private sector in BG added 500 thousand jobs
17. Net public debt fell BGN 10.7 billion since end-2000, up by BGN 3.8 billion since end-2007
18. In 10 years government spending in Bulgaria increased by BGN 14 billion (each year) or 8.4% on average
19. Investments 2000-2011 in industry BGN 57 billion, value added up 3 times, exports up 4 times
20. Only 1% of youths 15-24 in Bulgaria work part-time, 49% in Holland, 36% in Denmark, 19% in Sweden
21. According to Google the searches for "invest in Bulgaria" on a global scale are on average fewer than 100 daily
22. In Bulgaria 4.7% of the students study exact sciences and IT, in EU 9.3%, in Germany 12%
23. In Bulgaria 18% of employees work on Saturdays, in EU - 27%, in France - 29%
24. Bulgaria’s foreign trade is 138% of GDP, being 95% in Germany and barely 57% in France.
25. In Bulgaria only 1.5% of the people participate in lifelong learning (9% in EU).
26. In Bulgaria fixed cap. investments are EUR 2800 per employee, in Germany - EUR 17000, in Sweden – EUR 17000
27. Investors in Bulgaria go through 21 administrative steps for construction permits’ approval
28. Bankruptcy in BG takes on average 3.3 years,10% in fees, contract enforcement - 560 days, 24% fees
29. Bulgarian exports to China and Republic of Korea grew 6 times in the last 3 years.
30. If economic convergence to EU keeps the pace of the last 15 years, it will take 40 more years
In 2013 Industry Watch will work for 10th year in favor of the Bulgarian business. And the world, Europe and Bulgaria will enter the 5th year of the global financial crisis. The dynamics of the economies, however, is diverse - some countries are just initiating the necessary reforms, others quickly adapted. In this situation, the recovery in Bulgaria continues to depend on foreign investment, the stability of the financial sector, reforms in public services, the flexibility of export-oriented production, income and household behavior.
We believe that with these and other analyses and recommendations we have helped those who trusted us in their business planning.
We suggest that you save money and time by using our daily work on monitoring and analysis of global and local political, financial and economic news, as well as selected economic indicators, and detailed statistical data.
In the package of analytical products for 2013 we offer:
- Quarterly Report “Personal Assets: Financial wealth and housing market”
- Biannual report “Biggest Cities Review” - regional labor market overview with field research data
- Data and charts in easy-to-use format
- Comprehensive database with economic indicators (macroeconomic, banking sector, asset prices, labor market and others) with monthly updates.
- Special Report “Scenarios for the global and the Bulgarian economy for 2013-2014” which will be issued in May 2013.
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• Presentation (slides with charts and brief commentary) for internal usage (up to 8 selected economic indicators) – delivered up to 24 hours after the request;
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• Personal presentation by one of our experts at your event, training session, partnership meeting (general focus on the economy), 30-60 minutes);
• Personal presentation by one of our experts at your event, training session, partnership meeting (general focus on the economy and focus on one sector), 30-60 minutes).
In case of other requests for economic analysis and forecasts, our subscribers will be prioritized in terms of time for completion and can receive substantial price discounts. Our experts will respond promptly to your questions, sparing you the need to hire high-paid experts or analysts.
We hope that you will find us useful for your business. It is possible to negotiate individual packages according to the client’s needs.
For more information, other services and discounts write to subscription@iwatchbulgaria.com or call +359 2 944 6225.