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The next crisis in Bulgaria
submited on 04.02.2009 in category Political stability | Regulated markets | Privatisation | Macroeconomic developments
submited on 04.02.2009 in category Political stability | Regulated markets | Privatisation | Macroeconomic developments
The definition of “crisis” in most cases would include at least a sudden event. If we expected the crisis, we would have been prepared, we would try to avoid it and thus turn into a usual part of business and life, but then we would not need to call it a crisis, wouldn’t we. One important and positive effects from crises is that they usually focus our attention on the important factors, which determine the order in life and the economy.
Some of the important forecasts of crises might not prove right – not because they are not correct, but because someone took them into account and therefore changed the allocation of risks. This is actually the case in business relations, and in the strategic planning in competiive environment. Thinking ahead of possible crises ceases many of them and makes possible the sustainable long-term market functioning. Crises, at least from historical perspective, happen in areas of higher political risk.
In Bulgaria during the mandate of the last government happened crises in sectors, dominated by the government presence: education, municipal gabage disposal systems, the ceasing of gas supply by the state monopolist Bulgargas. Irrespective of the fact that the particualr reason is in the latter case outside Bulgaria, the conditions for that are created by the government policy in the energy sector.
The areas in Bulgaria, that require special attention due to risks of future crises, remain healthcare, transport infrastructure, energy, municipal communal services and pension system.
Most economists are currently expecting recession – contraction in the value of the production in the real (non-financial) part of the economy. However, the next crisis will be probably seen in a completely different place, sudden and unexpected to most observers of the economy and the players n the real sector.
The recent weeks’ crisis reminds us of the important factors for the life in Bulgaria. When the focus of the TV news is the bankruptcy of the next bank in Amerika or the next factory in Korea, the next crisis in Bulgaria will come from the local range of risks during the shifting of authority between two governments – both lacking clear vision and willingness to finish the necessary reforms.
Some of the important forecasts of crises might not prove right – not because they are not correct, but because someone took them into account and therefore changed the allocation of risks. This is actually the case in business relations, and in the strategic planning in competiive environment. Thinking ahead of possible crises ceases many of them and makes possible the sustainable long-term market functioning. Crises, at least from historical perspective, happen in areas of higher political risk.
In Bulgaria during the mandate of the last government happened crises in sectors, dominated by the government presence: education, municipal gabage disposal systems, the ceasing of gas supply by the state monopolist Bulgargas. Irrespective of the fact that the particualr reason is in the latter case outside Bulgaria, the conditions for that are created by the government policy in the energy sector.
The areas in Bulgaria, that require special attention due to risks of future crises, remain healthcare, transport infrastructure, energy, municipal communal services and pension system.
Most economists are currently expecting recession – contraction in the value of the production in the real (non-financial) part of the economy. However, the next crisis will be probably seen in a completely different place, sudden and unexpected to most observers of the economy and the players n the real sector.
The recent weeks’ crisis reminds us of the important factors for the life in Bulgaria. When the focus of the TV news is the bankruptcy of the next bank in Amerika or the next factory in Korea, the next crisis in Bulgaria will come from the local range of risks during the shifting of authority between two governments – both lacking clear vision and willingness to finish the necessary reforms.
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